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Q2 | 2025 | REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

July 25th, 2025

 

Real Estate Insights

We are officially in a flattening market—where conditions no longer strongly favor either buyers or sellers. Comparing Q2 2025 to the same period last year, South Santa Barbara County (Goleta to Carpinteria) saw an 18% increase in new inventory. Buyer demand held steady, with escrows up 7% and closed sales up 6%. While total sold volume dipped 2%, the average sales price declined 8% to just over $2.67 million, while the median price rose 1% to $1.8 million, suggesting resilience in the mid-market. Homes along the south coast sold at an average of 97% of list price, meanwhile, days on market increased by 11%, signaling a slower, more deliberate pace among buyers.

The highest sale of the quarter was a beachfront property at 1803 Fernald Point Lane, which sold for $23,760,000.

For Sellers

Inventory is up—but so is demand. Sales activity is outpacing last year’s, and the rise in median price reflects strong value retention. In the ultra-luxury tier, the market remains selective. Only a handful of homes priced over $10 million are under contract in Santa Barbara County, illustrating a steady, but curated pace at the top.

For Buyers

Most homes are selling below asking, creating a more balanced and thoughtful environment than what we’ve seen over the past five years. This is a favorable moment for buyers to negotiate, and real estate here remains a smart long-term investment. The biggest mistake in this kind of market? Waiting too long.

Looking Ahead

As we move through the second half of 2025, we anticipate a boost in activity. Many analysts expect lending conditions to improve as interest rates begin to drop. When they do, we expect more buyers to re-enter the market. With a stable job market and continued lifestyle-driven demand, our outlook for Santa Barbara real estate remains optimistic.

Ultra-luxury buyers will continue to be selective, and limited inventory remains a challenge—but well-positioned, thoughtfully marketed homes are still commanding attention and delivering strong results.

P.S. There are some great properties available right now—both on and off-market. If you’re thinking about making a move, reply to this newsletter. We would be happy to connect and take you on a private tour.

For a confidential consultation, contact us at 805.565.4014 or email us by clicking on the button below.

Looking forward to hearing from you!

ALL Q2 SALES IN EACH AREA

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NOTE: This is not in any way an official advertisement or publication of these properties. Data from The MLS and CORT for April 1, 2025 to June 31, 2025 and represents properties listed or sold by various brokers. The MLS, CORT, and Marsha Kotlyar Estate Group do not guarantee and are not in any way responsible for its accuracy, and data maintained may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. If your house is currently listed, this is not intended to be a solicitation. Based on information obtained from the MLS as of June 31, 2025. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. The Broker/Agent contained herein may or may not have been the Listing and/or Selling Agent.

©2025 BHHS Affiliates, LLC. An independently operated subsidiary of HomeServices of America, Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate, and a franchisee of BHH Affiliates, LLC. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices and the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices symbol are registered service marks of HomeServices of America, Inc. Equal Housing Opportunity. 

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