July 22nd, 2019
What’s happening in our real estate market? According to the Santa Barbara MLS, the first half of 2019 South Santa Barbara County statistics (Goleta through Carpinteria) remained relatively the same as last year (with slight price increases). The number of sales and the number of escrows inched up 2% (824 & 913 respectively). While inventory rose 3% to 1,877 active listings, the median sales price rose 4%, to $1,065,000 and the average price grew 20% to $1,687,687. Sold volume experienced 23% gain over last year, to just shy of $1.4 billion. Overall, time on the market is trending higher, cumulative days on market (DOM) averaged 75 days compared to 55 days last year. On average, properties sold at 94% of their asking price, down 2% from this time last year. The luxury market appears to be much more active than last year, with 16 sales above $10 million, compared to only 6 sales during the first half of 2018.
The Montecito real estate market is recovering from the January 2018 event, as the half yearly statistics demonstrated positive changes across all segments. The number of sales jumped 35% to 92 and the number of escrows grew by 25% to 101 pending sales. With the increased confidence, more listings hit the market, as inventory grew 27%, to 391 total active listings. The median and average sales also experienced gains (9% to $2.6 million and 8% $3,679,785 respectively). The highest sale in Montecito was at 2955 East Valley Road, which closed for $27,000,000. Not surprising, sold volume shot up a staggering 46% to $339 million. On average, listings in Montecito are selling at 92% of their asking price, unchanged from last year, and cumulative DOM remained the same, averaging 131 days compared to 128 days last year.
Q2 Montecito saw 67 sales, including 6 off market sales, and 13 pending sales. Compared to 42 sales in Q2 2018 (5 were off market). Average sales price was $3,492,751, with a median sales price of $2,587,500.
1803 Fernald Point Ln was listed at $17,500,000 and was on the market for 92 days. The property was listed and sold by Berkshire Hathaway.
8 estates over $6 million sold in Montecito during Q2 (2 of those sales were off market). 5 of those sales were over $10 million. [There are currently 2 pending sales over $6 million.]
The red hot Hope Ranch real estate market we saw in 2018 seems to be cooling off although there is plenty of positive news to report. Compared to last year, during the first half of 2019, housing supply dipped 9% to 60 total active listings. Sales activity tempered, as the number of sales dropped 16% with 21 closed transactions and the number of escrows fell 21% to 23 transactions. The average price grew 15% to $5,160,464, whereas the median price fell 6% to $3,200,000. The highest sale in Hope Ranch was at 4455-4445 Via Bendita, which had been on and off the market for over 10 years, and closed for $16,438,000. On average, listings sold at 96% of their asking price, up 2% over last year. The shelf life was half as long, with cumulative days on the market averaging 110 days compared to 231 days last year.
Hope Ranch had 12 sales in Q2 2019, and 1 pending sale. Compared to 12 sales in Q2 2018, including 2 off market sales. [Q2 average sales price was $4,212,138, and median sales price was $2,950,000.]
4475 Via Abrigada was the highest Hope Ranch sale for the second quarter of 2019. Having been listed at $11,500,000 and on the market for just 53, the property sold for $10,500,000. Represented by Coldwell Banker.
2 Hope Ranch estates sold for over $6 million in Q2 2019. The highest sale was 4475 Via Abrigada, an ocean view 5.5 acre estate, which sold for $10,500,000.
The hottest segment of our market was the Beachfront market, which experienced double-digit figures. During the first half of 2019, there were 11 beachfront sales, compared to only 3 in the first half of 2018. Particularly active is the luxury beachfront market. Sellers cashing out of their beachfront investments are seeing this time as an opportunity, as 9 of 11 of those sales experienced some kind of appreciation from when they last transacted! The highest beach sale, at 571 Sand Point Road, closed for $24,250,000 and there are currently 5 pending beach escrows (3 of which are over $10 million)!
Q2 had 9 sales and 4 pending sales along the sand! Average sales price was $8,853,323, and median sales price was $3,350,000. Compared to only 3 sales in Q2 2018.
571 Sand Point Road was the highest sale on the sand in South Santa Barbara. Originally listed at $26,500,000 and having been on the market for 344 days, this Cape Cod-style oceanfront estate was listed by Berkshire Hathaway.
4 beachfront estates sold for over $6 million in Q2 2019. 3443 Padaro Lane (which we sold for $18.6 million in 2017), came on the market at $24 million and went pending after only 7 days on the market! The property has now closed for full asking, represented by Village Properties.
Nationally, a hot stock market is pumping capital into the economy. The S&P 500 reports the best first half of a year in decades, gaining more than 17% in 6 months. The construction industry is booming as a result. The federal reserve halted increasing interest rates. At Buyers & Seller’s delight, mortgage rates fell approximately 1% in 6 months. While there still remains a short supply of housing inventory, and while home prices rose nominally, they are not rising at nearly the same rate as the last few years. Average days on the market (DOM) has also been increasing steadily this year.
While there is activity, the local real estate market remains very spotty and pricing is continuing to level out. The majority of price reductions typicaly happen during the 3rd quarter, and we’re seeing sellers adjust their pricing within 3-5 weeks of hitting the market rather than waiting longer. My prediction for the rest of 2019 is that property price growth will continue pumping the brakes and we will experience only marginal gains of 1-3%.
Stay tuned for my next quarterly real estate update in October, where I will review the 3rd quarter Fall statistics. To have your property featured in this quarterly newletter, give us a call at 805-565-4014 or email associates@MarshaKotlyar.com.